Is reddit experiencing “upvote inflation”?

A couple months ago, one redditor asked a simple question: “Is [reddit] karma experiencing inflation?” Of course, it’s silly to think about inflation applying to upvotes because you can’t buy anything with them. Nonetheless, it’s interesting to find out whether an upvote on reddit is worth more or less nowadays than it did back in ye olden days of reddit.

If we think of upvotes as a currency, we first need to know how many are in circulation at any given point in time. After all, the more upvotes that are around, the less your individual upvotes count. Below, I’ve charted the total number of upvotes that reddit posts received every day between 2008-2013. (Note the log scale of the y-axis.)

reddit-daily-total-upvotes-log

Shown above, reddit posts receive orders of magnitude more upvotes today than they did back in 2008. Whereas a paltry 80,000 upvotes were spread amongst posts every day in early 2008, nowadays the reddit servers process well over 8 million upvotes every day. To put that in perspective: On average, reddit users pressed the upvote button 96 times every second in 2013.

Essentially, this is what has been happening to the reddit servers:

Needless to say, reddit upvotes have experienced massive inflation since 2008: An upvote nowadays is worth 113x less than it did in early 2008. That means you need 113x more upvotes than in 2008 to even stand a chance of reaching the front page. That also means that the karma hounds of the early reddit days, such as /u/qgyh2, have the real bragging rights of amassing huge mounds of upvotes when it was really hard to get them.

Normally at this point I’d start making predictions about how much an upvote will be worth in the future, but there’s actually been a strange trend starting in 2013: The total number of upvotes on reddit stagnated at about 8 million upvotes per day for all of 2013. Could this mean that reddit’s upvote carrying capacity is about 8 million upvotes per day? If so, that’s bad news for the multitude of posters than want their posts to be seen: As more and more users post links to reddit, an ever-growing percentage of them will go completely ignored. It should be telling to revisit this post next year to see if that trend held in 2014.

Most upvoted posts

Earlier this year, I wrote an article looking at the most upvoted posts of all time on reddit. Since it was much harder to amass upvotes in 2008 than today, it’s necessary adjust every post’s upvote count for the “upvote inflation” we see above. Below, I’ve charted out the most-upvoted posts on reddit every day when their upvote counts are adjusted to December 2013 upvotes.

reddit-daily-adjusted-upvotes

Interestingly, the most upvoted posts prior to mid-2011 garnered far more upvotes than posts today (relative to the total number of upvotes being given at the time). Perhaps the most extreme example is “test post please ignore”, which amassed an incredible 1.56 million inflation-adjusted upvotes in July 2009.

What happened in mid-2011 that changed everything? This change in the upvote distribution happens to coincide with the time period that /r/reddit.com was closed down. /r/reddit.com was undoubtedly the most popular catch-all subreddit back in the day, and the top post on /r/reddit.com was typically #1 on the front page. Without /r/reddit.com to dominate the #1 front page spot, we started to see a more even distribution of upvotes amongst the front page posts.

Finally, here’s the top 10 most-upvoted posts when their upvotes are adjusted for inflation:

  1. [1,559,193 upvotes] test post please ignore
  2. [1,014,411] For every upvote, I will donate $0.25 to the Julie Amero Defense Fund. Come on Redditors, let’s do this!
  3. [968,303] For every upvote, I’ll donate 10 cents to Darfur.
  4. [866,817] Vote up if you’re NOT getting an iPhone today.
  5. [786,036] I hate my job…
  6. [785,427] Upvote this if you think marijuana should be legal.
  7. [750,413] Obama wins the Presidency!
  8. [731,547] Today is my birthday. I only get one every four years. I have a Karma score of 1… you know what to do!
  9. [726,002] Vote up if you think going to war with Iran is a bad idea
  10. [711,023] Vote up if you’ve lost all respect for Bill and Hillary Clinton

(and now you see why “upvote if” threads have been banned by mods more-or-less site-wide.)

You can download the entire list in csv format here.

What about 2014?!

I can’t include many posts from 2014 in this analysis because they haven’t been archived yet, which means that they can still be voted on. I’ll be sure to update this article once all of the posts from 2014 have been archived.

Dr. Randy Olson is a Senior Data Scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, where he develops state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms with a focus on biomedical applications.

Posted in data visualization Tagged with: , , , ,
  • Daniel

    Can you look at how the ratio of up votes to down votes changed? Or the same information would be in the share of total votes that were upvotes…

  • reuvenavram

    Twitter is very “gamed”. Just to see what would happen, I bought some followers. It’s amazing how much credibility I’ve received.

    I’ve had television reporters PM me for interviews because they think I’m “important”, I get direct messages back from companies I tweet to, and I’ve been contacted to receive (and did receive) review/press copies of books by major publishers, with the hope that I’d tweet good things about them.

    All from PayPal-ing $100 to some shady Russian who got me ~300,000 fake followers.

  • TunaSushi

    I hate reddit.

    • anon

      tight